Influenza is a contagious disease of the lungs
and is usually spread from infected people coughing
and sneezing. When pandemic influenza begins,
it is likely to spread very rapidly because
most people will have little or no immunity
to pandemic influenza.
Influenza viruses are always changing and
occasionally a new virus emerges that can spread
easily among humans. While experts predict that
a pandemic influenza will occur again, it is
difficult to predict when the next pandemic
will occur and how severe it will be.
Occasionally, large changes occur that produce
a pandemic influenza. These major changes are
called “shift” and can result in
a new type of influenza virus. Shift changes
may result in the re-emergence of an old type
of influenza virus such as the 1918 pandemic
strain. This is the type of change most likely
to cause pandemic influenza.
Scientists are concerned that
“bird flu” (H5N1 avian influenza)
in Asia and Europe could change, causing pandemic
influenza. This is supported by the following:
The virus is spreading
to birds and other animals in new regions.
In Germany, cases of H5N1 infection have
been confirmed in domestic cats and a stone
marten, while infected civets have been
documented in Vietnam.
The virus has infected
some people, causing severe illness and
death.
In rare cases the virus
has spread from one person to another.
There is currently no vaccine
available and people cannot be vaccinated against
the H5N1 Avian Influenza virus yet. Preparing
and staying informed are the best responses
now.
Right now, there is no
pandemic influenza in the United States,
or the world.
Preparing now can limit
the effects of pandemic influenza.
Test vaccines have been
developed but will not be used until a pandemic
is imminent
Experts at WHO and elsewhere believe that the
world is now closer to another influenza pandemic
than at any time since 1968, when the last of
the previous century's three pandemics occurred.
WHO uses a series of six phases of pandemic
alert as a system for informing the world of
the seriousness of the threat and of the need
to launch progressively more intense preparedness
activities. We are currently at number
3.
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